Games watched: 14 (full 2019 season)

Overall average throw efficiency: 81.7% (rank: 5th)
Turnover Worthy Throw%: 3.2% (rank: 5th)

Cross-field throws: (opposite hash to outside the numbers, excluding short range): 6.2% of attempts (rank: 5th)

Short Passing:

  • 39.2% of throws behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. (rank: 4th)
  • Missed 8.8% of those throws (rank: 4th)

10-20 yard Range:

  • Overall throw efficiency: 65.5% (rank: 5th)
  • 25.2% of all throws
  • 10 touchdowns
  • 5 turnover worthy throws

Deep Passing:

  • 19.7% of all throws were blue throws (rank: 3rd)
  • 65.1% success rate on those throws (rank: 4th)
  • 29.8 average air yards per successful blue throw (rank: 5th)
  • 21:5 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Third Down Stats:

  • 3rd down conversion percentage: 52.5%
  • 3rd down accuracy percentage: 77.2% (rank: 2nd)
  • Average distance to go: 7.3 yards
  • 10:5 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Blue throws on third downs: 19.3% of all third down conversions
  • Downfield successful shots on third downs: 8.8% of all third down conversions (rank: 6th)

Fourth Down Efficiency:

  • Average distance to go: 4.4 yards
  • Conversions/Attempts: 3/4
  • Conversion percentage: 63.6% with 72.7% accuracy

Third and Fourth Down Red Zone Efficiency:

  • Conversions/Attempts: 13/18
  • Conversion percentage: 72.2%
  • 4:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Red Zone Efficiency:

  • 57 Attempts
  • 82.5% Throw Efficiency (rank: 3rd)
  • 17:3 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • 24 end zone shots (passes delivered in the endzone)

“And Goal” Situational Efficiency:

  • 21 Attempts
  • 61.9% Throw Efficiency (rank: 6th)
  • 9:3 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Hit As QB is Throwing:

  • Missed 32% of HAT Attempts (rank: 3rd)
  • 0 turnover worthy throw

Off Platform Throwing:

  • 72.9% Throw Efficiency (rank: 2nd)
  • 14:3 blue throw to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Roll Right: 71% of OP
    • 77.1% efficiency
    • 10:3 blue throw : turnover worthy throw

Roll Left: 29% of OP

    • 61.5% efficiency
    • 4:0 blue throw : turnover worthy throw

Impressions:  Justin Herbert is an experienced player in a terrible scheme fit for his playstyle and strengths. He is an effortless thrower, able to generate a ton of power with a smooth release and routinely makes throws 35 yards downfield that feel like 15. When he can make quick decisions or when his primary read is there, he plays confidently and rips it into tight windows with great placement. He is relatively safe with the ball in the pass game and possesses plus athleticism to be a threat as a runner. Oregon’s offensive line was fantastic this year and allowed Herbert to do excellent work from a clean pocket. When the play did break down, Herbert was able to extend plays and pick up yardage of the ground. He had lapses of sloppy play and carelessness with the ball. Showed a tendency to lock on to primary read too long and be late on throws past the primary option.

Overall, Herbert is everything you want in a quarterback — big frame, athletic and highly intelligent. He will do best running play action and taking vertical shots downfield. Oregon had him playing as a game manager — not dialing up enough deep shots (and when he did, his receivers often dropped it), not utilizing him as a running threat to his full potential and being a run heavy, screen reliant offense. His projection next level comes from what you can do with a player like Herbert and less what he was able to accomplish during his tenure in Eugene.

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