I worked through Mac Jones’ film before the media hype started rolling about his top 10 projection. I expected to be underwhelmed and expected a game manager on a super team. I didn’t want to waste the time it took to chart him. But the more I watched, the more I liked. I was pleasantly surprised. Unlike his predecessor, Tua Tagoviloa — who manufactured a majority of his production off of RPOs, Jones is running plenty of play-action and taking his shots downfield.

Jones’ mechanics are clean and he’s able to deliver a ball with requisite velocity, despite not having a ton of natural arm talent. He seems to process at a high level and get through his reads very efficiently. While he’s not a dynamic playmaker with his feet, Jones plays fast and is savvy in the pocket with smooth, subtle maneuvering. This skillset was tested, too. The narrative of “it’s Alabama, he had perfect protection all around him,” didn’t show true on film. He faced a healthy dose of interior pressure to work through and still found ways to get the ball out accurately and on time.

Ultimately, Jones has command of an offense, knows where his answers are, can navigate a muddy pocket, and shorten his delivery speed in response to pressure. But while he’s the most efficient and pro-ready prospect of the class, it’s hard to be excited about one-year starter with his limited athletic profile and lack of out-of-structure playmaking ability.

Best fit: West Coast offense that requires him to make quick, intelligent decisions with the ball and get it there accurately, with the ability to reliably hit deep shots when dialed up.

Overall Average Throw Efficiency: 87.4% (rank: 1st out of 5, best)

Turnover Worthy Throw%: 2.26% (rank: 3rd)

Cross-field throws: (opposite hash to outside the numbers, 10+ yards downfield):

  • 5.8% of attempts (rank: 5th, least amount)
  • 91.3% efficiency (rank: 1st)
  • 2 turnover worthy throws, 8.7% of cross-field throws

Short Passing:

  • 42.2% of throws behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. (rank: 2nd)
  • Missed 4.8% of those throws (rank: 2nd)

10-20 yard Range:

  • Overall throw efficiency: 78.6% (rank 3rd)
  • 25.9% of all throws
  • 11 touchdowns
  • 5 turnover worthy throws
  • 27 Blue Throws in this range

Deep Passing:

  • 14.6% of all throws were blue throws (rank: 4th)
  • 79.3% success rate on those throws (rank: 1st)
  • 36.3 average air yards per successful blue throw (rank: 5th, lowest)
  • 21:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Third Down Stats:

  • Third down conversion percentage: 71.6% (rank: 1st)
  • Third down accuracy percentage: 82.4% (rank: 1st)
  • Average distance to go: 7.1 yards
  • 9:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Blue throws on third downs: 24.3% of all third-down conversions (rank 2nd)
  • Downfield successful shots on third downs: 16.2% of all third-down conversions (rank: 1st)

Fourth Down Efficiency:

  • Average distance to go: 2.67 yards
  • Conversions/Attempts: 1/3
  • Conversion percentage: 33.3 % with 66.7% accuracy

Third and Fourth Down Red Zone Efficiency:

  • Accurate attempts/Attempts: 12/16
  • Throw efficiency: 75% (rank 2nd)
  • 5:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Red Zone Efficiency:

  • 62 Attempts
  • 82.3% Throw Efficiency (rank: 1st)
  • 14:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • 24 end zone shots (passes delivered in the endzone)

“And Goal” Situational Efficiency:

  • 15 Attempts
  • 73.3% Throw Efficiency (rank: 4th)
  • 5:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Hit As Throwing Efficiency:

  • Missed 27.3% of HAT Attempts (rank: 1st)
  • 3 turnover worthy throw (13.6%)

Off Platform Throwing:

  • 69.6% Throw Efficiency (rank: 5th)
  • 6:2 blue throw to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Roll Right: 78% of OP attempts
    • 9% efficiency
    • 5:2 blue throw:turnover worthy throw
    • Roll Left: 22% of OP attempts
    • 60 % efficiency
    • 1:0 blue throw :turnover worthy throw

2-Minute Situations:

  • 77.1% Throw Efficiency (rank:5th)
  • 8 Blue Throws
  • 2 Turnover worthy throws
  • Successful scoring drive on 80% of drive attempts (rank:T-1st)

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