North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance is a player with great physical tools and strong tape, but his level of competition and overall inexperience at the position make his projection to the NFL a difficult one. With only 318 pass attempts in a run-heavy scheme, Lance will need to prove he’s capable of handling a full workload in a pro-level offense.

I found Lance to be a fantasizing prospect. A huge frame, powerful runner, and the strongest class, Lance was the best player on either side ever time he stepped on the field. He was extremely efficient from the quarterback position and was near the top at a significant amount of my charting categories.

Always in control of the offense and poised, Lance has clean footwork and crisp drops to get the ball out to the right read on time. Coaches have praised his work ethic and football IQ, as he has a significant say in calling protections and checking to the right fits. His under center and play-action work are best in the class.

Lance’s main concerns don’t come from questions he left on the field and what he doesn’t do well, but more on his transition to the next level. Will his athleticism look as dominant vs. NFL-caliber athletes? What will it look like under more consistent pressure with tighter windows?

Will he be able to make the jump from the FCS as a 19-year old, one-year starter, redshirt freshman we last saw on film to the NFL? Can he handle a full workload coming from a run-heavy scheme? If Lance can make the leap up in competition, he stands to be the most complete quarterback in this year’s class.

Trey Lance Throw Efficiency

Overall Average Throw Efficiency: 86.6% (rank: 2nd of 5)

Turnover Worthy Throw%: 1.44% (rank: 1st, best)

Cross-field throws: (opposite hash to outside the numbers, 10+ yards downfield):

  • 15.5% of attempts (rank: 1st)
  • 83.7% efficiency (rank 1st)
  • 1 turnover worthy throws, 2.3% of cross-field throws

Short Passing:

  • 29.6% of throws behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. (rank: 5th, least amount)
  • Missed 2.4% of those throws (rank: 1st)

10-20 yard Range:

  • Overall throw efficiency: 79.5% (rank 2nd of 5)
  • 30% of all throws
  • 12 touchdowns
  • 2 turnover worthy throws
  • 41 Blue Throws in this range

Deep Passing:

  • 18.1% of all throws were blue throws (rank: 1st)
  • 78% success rate on those throws (rank: 2nd)
  • 42.3 average air yards per successful blue throw (rank: 1st)
  • 22:0 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Third Down Stats:

  • Third down conversion percentage: 63.7% (rank 3rd)
  • Third down accuracy percentage: 72.5% (rank: 5th)
  • Average distance to go: 7.8 yards
  • 12:3 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Blue throws on third downs: 26.1% of all third down conversions (rank 1st)
  • Downfield successful shots on third downs: 11.6% of all third down conversions (rank: 3rd)

Fourth Down Efficiency:

  • Average distance to go: 7 yards
  • Conversions/Attempts: 2/2
  • Conversion percentage: 100% with 100% accuracy

Third and Fourth Down Red Zone Efficiency:

  • Conversions/Attempts: 9/14
  • Conversion percentage: 64.3% (rank 4th)
  • 6:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Red Zone Efficiency:

  • 29 Attempts
  • 79.3% Throw Efficiency (rank: 3rd)
  • 15:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • 20 end zone shots (passes delivered in the endzone)

“And Goal” Situational Efficiency:

  • 15 Attempts
  • 80% Throw Efficiency (rank: 2nd)
  • 7:0 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Hit As Throwing Efficiency:

  • Missed 31.3% of HAT Attempts (rank: 2nd)
  • 1 turnover worthy throw (6.25%)

Off Platform Throwing:

  • 91.4% Throw Efficiency (rank: 1st)
  • 15:0 blue throw to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Roll Right: 87.9% of OP attempts
    • 96.1% efficiency
    • 12:0 blue throw : turnover worthy throw
  • Roll Left: 12.1% of OP attempts
    • 64.3% efficiency
    • 3:0 blue throw : turnover worthy throw

2-Minute Situations:

  • 89.7% Throw Efficiency (rank: 1st)
  • 14 Blue Throws
  • 0 Turnover worthy throws
  • Successful scoring drive on 80% of drive attempts (rank: T-1st)