Games watched: 9 (full 2019 season)

Overall average throw efficiency: 84.2% (rank: 2nd)
Turnover Worth Throw%: 2.7% (rank: 3rd)

Cross-field throws (opposite hash to outside the numbers, excluding short range): 7.2% of attempts (rank: 4th)

Short Passing:

  • 41.9% of throws behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. (rank: 2nd most)
  • Missed 4.3% of those throws (rank: 1st, best)

10-20 yard Range:

  • Overall throw efficiency: 70.2%
  • 21.2% of all throws (rank: 2nd)
  • 11 touchdowns
  • 4 turnover worthy throws

Deep Passing:

  • 18% of all throws were blue throws (rank: 6th, last)
  • 67.5% success rate on those throws (rank: 3rd)
  • 34.4 average air yards per successful blue throw (rank: 4th)
  • 14:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Third Down Stats:

  • 3rd down conversion percentage: 69.8%
  • 3rd down on-target  percentage: 88.4% (rank: 1st)
  • Average distance to go: 7.35 yards
  • 11:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Blue throws on third downs: 16.3% of all third down conversions
  • Downfield successful shots on third downs: 9.3% of all third down conversions (rank: 4th)

Fourth Down Efficiency:

  • Average distance to go: 3 yards
  • Conversions/Attempts: 3/3
  • Conversion percentage: 100% with 100% accuracy

Third and Fourth Down Red Zone Efficiency:

  • Conversions/Attempts: 7/8
  • Conversion percentage: 87.5%
  • 4:1 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Red Zone Efficiency:

  • 32 Attempts
  • 81.3% Throw Efficiency (rank: 5th)
  • 15:2 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • 17 end zone shots (passes delivered in the endzone)

“And Goal” Situational Efficiency:

  • 13 Attempts
  • 76.9% Throw Efficiency (rank: 4th)
  • 4:3 touchdown to turnover worthy throw ratio

Hit As QB is Throwing:

  • Missed 62.5% of HAT Attempts (rank: 5th)
  • 1 turnover worthy throw

Off Platform Throwing:

  • 68.8% Throw Efficiency (rank: 5th)
  • 2:2 blue throw to turnover worthy throw ratio
  • Roll Right: 31% of OP
    • 80% efficiency
    • 1:1 blue throw : turnover worthy throw

Roll Left: 69% of OP.

    • 63.6% efficiency
    • 1:1 blue throw : turnover worthy throw

Impressions: Tua Tagovailoa is a naturally accurate passer who throws a very catchable ball, feasting on the middle of the field of the defense. Quick slant is dangerous with him as he is decisive and quick to pull the trigger with pinpoint accuracy on that route. He has scramble ability behind the line of scrimmage and keeps his eyes downfield looking to make a play rather than take off and run. While the offensive line in front of him has been stellar throughout his career, when he does face pressure, his ability to make subtle shifts in the pocket and evade rushers was great. Tagovailoa would excel in a short-intermediate timing-based scheme.

You cannot separate out injury from film with Tagovailoa. Even with a clean bill of health, injury is a massive concern. He wasn’t really asked to do much this year, so it’s hard to get a true feel of the player he can be. Tagovailoa generally throws from a clean pocket, to his first read, who is wide open. He rarely needs to progress through his reads and doesn’t seem to want to test tight windows. He has great protection and throws to open receivers more than anyone in the class. When you hit him and force him off his spot, efficiency significantly drops and errors increase above expected. There is not a lot of velocity generated on throws. He doesn’t always have a feel for the deep safety and leads to turnover worthy throws.

Overall, drafting Tagovailoa means doing so with the risk of him never playing a snap for your franchise or not escaping his rookie contract without significant injury. The pattern of injury as well as the short- and long-term effects of the most recent hip injury are concerning. Healthy or injured, the upside on Tagovailoa make him worthy of a top 10 selection.

 

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